Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Costa Rica
  • Dominican Republic
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Cuba

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $804,488$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{824,856.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.1)}}\) (asimptote \(824,856.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83,096$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,261.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.4)}}\) (asimptote \(83,261.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $38,788$ on 2020-10-08

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,605,873$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,897,370.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,897,370.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $212,762$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,002.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204,002.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,371,859$ on 2020-10-08

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,054$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.7)}}\) (asimptote \(124,041.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,463$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,646.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,646.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,200$ on 2020-10-08

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $177,730$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,768.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 75.4)}}\) (asimptote \(139,768.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,609$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,075.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,075.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,429$ on 2020-10-08

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $81,672$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,467.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(82,467.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,477$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,576.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,576.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48,106$ on 2020-10-08

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,828$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,290.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 189.9)}}\) (asimptote \(115,290.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,478.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,478.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $32,006$ on 2020-10-08

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $116,872$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,134.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.3)}}\) (asimptote \(124,134.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,163$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,112.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,112.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,142$ on 2020-10-08

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $96,480$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,129.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96,129.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,347$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,296.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,296.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,395$ on 2020-10-08

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 64%
Cuba recovered 50%
Dominican Republic recovered 37%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $29,842$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{30,046.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 124.0)}}\) (asimptote \(30,046.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $877$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{882.9}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 122.3)}}\) (asimptote \(882.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,195$ on 2020-10-08

Cuba⮸

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,917$ on 2020-10-08

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-10-08

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94.7}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 32.0)}}\) (asimptote \(94.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $423$ on 2020-10-08