Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $804,488$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{824,856.7}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.1)}}\) (asimptote \(824,856.7\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83,096$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83,261.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 118.4)}}\) (asimptote \(83,261.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $38,788$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,605,873$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,897,370.8}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 147.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,897,370.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $212,762$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{204,002.9}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 87.3)}}\) (asimptote \(204,002.9\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,371,859$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $118,054$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,041.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.7)}}\) (asimptote \(124,041.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,463$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,646.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,646.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,200$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $177,730$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{139,768.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 75.4)}}\) (asimptote \(139,768.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,609$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,075.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,075.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,429$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $81,672$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,467.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 136.2)}}\) (asimptote \(82,467.2\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,477$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,576.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,576.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $48,106$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $84,828$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,290.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 189.9)}}\) (asimptote \(115,290.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,478.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 186.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,478.7\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $32,006$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $116,872$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124,134.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 135.3)}}\) (asimptote \(124,134.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,163$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,112.1}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 157.7)}}\) (asimptote \(3,112.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,142$ on 2020-10-08
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $96,480$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,129.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(96,129.2\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,347$ on 2020-10-08
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,296.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 113.0)}}\) (asimptote \(3,296.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,395$ on 2020-10-08